Sunday, March 12, 2006

Final Bracket Notes

Ohio St. will be a one seed should they win the Big Ten tourney this afternoon. If they don’t then Memphis will be the final one seed.

Bradley is pretty much in at this point. They got to the MVC finals and they played really well once they got O’Bryant back. The Braves also have a solid RPI and SOS and are 7-3 in their last ten games.

It is hard to see Missouri St. be denied an at-large bid because their computer numbers are amazing. Their RPI is 19 and their SOS is 36. They are also 8-2 in their last ten.

Michigan struggled down the stretch but they also had a few injuries to deal with. Their computer numbers are pretty good but 3-7 in their last 10 is a killer. If their injured guys are close to normal they should be good to go for a bid.

George Mason is a very interesting case. They have a solid record and they won a share of the Colonial regular season title. If they hadn’t suspended Skinn, they would probably be a near lock at this point. However the suspension should hurt seeding more than getting in and I think they will get in. They have a RPI of 26 and are 8-2 in their last 10 with the two losses coming to a good Hofstra team. Their SOS doesn’t help them but at 79 it doesn’t hurt them either.

I think Texas A&M is looking good. Their non-conference SOS leaves a lot to be desired but beating Texas and playing them close in the Big 12 tourney helps to make up for that. They are also 8-2 in their last 10 and have an average RPI of 43. They may be out if South Carolina wins though.

I don’t see Cincy and Seton Hall both getting in. It will be one or the other. Cincy has a better RPI and SOS as well as 3 more wins against the RPI Top 100. However a lot of that was with Armein Kirkland and they won’t have him. Seton Hall has a lot of great wins but an equal share of bad losses including losing to Rutgers in the first round of the Big East tourney. At least Cincy lost to Syracuse which won the tournament. The Pirates also beat the Bearcats at the end of the regular season and both are a very average 5-5 in their last 10. Cincinnati has one more win, but Seton Hall has one more Big East win. These teams along with Texas A&M have almost exact replicas. Right now Cincy feels like they have a better chance of getting in than Seton Hall.

There is then a gap until the next two or three teams which are the second to fourth teams out.

Creighton is average in almost every relevant category for a bubble team. Their RPI is 40, SOS is 52, record is 19-9, and they are 6-4 in their last ten. They are my second team out, but I don’t think they will get in.

Hofstra has a lot of wins and has a good RPI. However their SOS is 134 which leaves them out.

Colorado would be my fourth team out but they aren’t really close. They did get to 20 wins and they beat Oklahoma but got blown out by Texas and Kansas twice as well as Iowa St. and Nebraska.

No one else can make a case. Florida St. is done unless the committee decides their win against Duke is worthy of a bid which it isn’t. Air Force has a lot of wins but nothing that stands out. Maryland played like crap after losing Chris McCray.

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