Tuesday, March 08, 2011

Postseason Tournament Predictions V

Big Ten
Preseason Predicted Champ- Michigan St.
Regular Season Champ- Ohio St.
Predicted Postseason Champ- Ohio St.

Ohio St. has been the best team in the country so far and only lost at Wisconsin and at Purdue, two places that few teams ever win. In fact, Wisconsin and Purdue went a combined 33-0 at home this year. Ohio St. destroyed both at home and should be able to take them on a neutral floor. Ohio St., Wisconsin, and Purdue are all locks for the tournament and all have a good chance for top 4 seeds while Illinois will most likely be in as well. Michigan, Michigan St., and Penn St. are all on the bubble. All went 9-9 in Big Ten play and played a tough schedule. Michigan is in the best shape since they swept Michigan St. and Penn St. but need one more win. Penn St. and Michigan St. both have somewhat easy first round games before playing Wisconsin and Purdue respectively. If they win those games then they have a decent chance of getting selected but might still need help from other bubble games.


ACC
Preseason Predicted Champ- Duke
Regular Season Champ- North Carolina
Predicted Postseason Champ- North Carolina

North Carolina and Duke are the two best ACC teams by far and should meet in the ACC finals again. They split the season series but North Carolina has been playing really well since they shored up the point guard situation that I can’t see them losing in this tournament. Florida St. is locked into the NCAA tournament along with UNC and Duke while Boston College, Virginia Tech and Clemson all have work to do. Right now BC is in the best shape thanks to good computer numbers and a season sweep of Virginia Tech along with a 9-7 ACC record. However should they get past Wake Forest (and they better), they would play Clemson. A Clemson win would in that game would give the Tigers a season sweep of BC although they didn’t play at BC. Virginia Tech was looking great after beating Duke but followed that up by losing to BC and at Clemson. They went 0-3 against Clemson and BC and need to at least beat Georgia Tech who they split with in the regular season to feel good about their chances on Selection Sunday.


SEC
Preseason Predicted Champ- Kentucky
Regular Season Champ- Florida
Predicted Postseason Champ- Florida

Florida was the class of the SEC this year and is probably the best SEC team for tournament purposes since Kentucky is so young, Vandy is not that great away from home, and Tennessee is very erratic. Florida, Kentucky, and Vandy are all locked into the field while Tennessee and Georgia probably just need one win at worst. Alabama on the other hand needs to at least reach the finals since their out of conference schedule was so poor even though they went 12-4 in SEC play. Alabama could be this year’s version of the 2010 Virginia Tech team that went 10-6 in ACC play.


Pac-10
Preseason Predicted Champ- Washington
Regular Season Champ- Arizona
Predicted Postseason Champ- UCLA

Arizona was the regular season Pac-10 champion but went 0-2 in Los Angeles where the Pac-10 tournament is being played. UCLA on the other hand went 8-2 in LA including winning 7 straight at the end of the season. Arizona and UCLA are both locked into the field with Washington likely in as well. The Huskies however might want to win their opening round game against rival Washington St who swept them in the regular season. Washington St., USC, and possibly Cal are all on the edge of the bubble but all need at least two wins to be in the serious conversation come selection Sunday.


Mt. West
Preseason Predicted Champ- UNLV
Regular Season Champ- BYU, San Diego St.
Predicted Postseason Champ- San Diego St.

BYU, San Diego St., and UNLV are all safely in the NCAA tournament. San Diego St. might have the toughest road to the championship but I think they will prevail. They will most likely play UNLV in the semifinals and the Runnin’ Rebels will be at home but the Aztecs swept UNLV including a 6 point win at the Thomas and Mack Center. They would then most likely play BYU in the finals and although BYU swept them that was when Brandon Davies was playing. Colorado St. and New Mexico play a bubble elimination game in their opening game and the winner of that has to beat BYU to have any chance of getting an at-large bid.


WAC
Preseason Predicted Champ- Utah St.
Regular Season Champ- Utah St.
Predicted Postseason Champ- Utah St.

Utah St. again dominated the WAC going 15-1 and have a bye to the WAC semifinals. They should win the conference tournament and bubble teams across the country hope they do but if they don’t they would be right on the NCAA bubble.


MAC
Preseason Predicted Champ- Ohio
Regular Season Champ- Kent St.
Predicted Postseason Champ- Ohio

Kent St. won the conference at 12-4 but there were 8 teams who went .500 or better in conference play. Ohio was one of them going 9-7. They won 4 of 5 to end the season including a win at Kent St. They also have a favorable road to the finals since the two teams that beat them by double digits are in the other half of the bracket.

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